Market Place
Pipeline Prospector Oct 2023: Disappointing Q3 results, attacks on Israel, Gaza drag pharma indices down further
October was a gloomy month that saw Palestinian militant group Hamas attack Israel in the first week, resulting in the killing of hundreds of innocent people. Israel retaliated, formally declaring a war on Hamas. Another raging war, after the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, doesn’t augur well for the planet, let alone humanity, economies and industries.
The pharma indices reacted to the bloodshed, as also to the disappointing third quarter (Q3) results posted by some drugmakers. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) was down 8 percent, at US$ 3,637.05 while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) was down 12 percent, at US$ 64.12, and the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (SPSIBI) was down by 9 percent, at US$ 4,991.31.
On the upside, the month saw several large deals. The biggest deal of the month was Roche’s acquisition of Telavant from Roivant for US$ 7.1 billion. BMS announced the acquisition of Mirati Therapeutics for US$ 4.8 billion. Through this acquisition, BMS will gain access to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved lung cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib). And Eli Lilly expanded its oncology capabilities by acquiring Point Biopharma for US$ 1.4 billion.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Sanofi, Takeda cut 2023 profit forecasts; AbbVie, BMS post drop in Q3 sales
Several drugmakers announced their Q3 2023 results last month. Sanofi (stock down by 15 percent in October) reported a 4.1 percent drop in Q3 sales, at €11.9 billion (US$ 12.5 billion). What was worse, the French drugmaker lost €20 billion (US$ 21 billion) in market capitalization soon after announcing these results as it had abandoned its 2025 profit target of 32 percent. Instead of chasing the lofty target, Sanofi has decided to focus on “long-term profitability”, and increase spending on immunology and inflammation drug development. Sales of Sanofi’s multiple sclerosis drug Aubagio dropped by a whopping 60.5 percent to €199 million (US$ 210.2 million) primarily due to competition from generics in the US market.
Takeda (down by 7 percent) slashed its full-year profit forecast by 36 percent to 225 billion yen (US$ 1.5 billion) as it contends with disappointments in its development pipeline and the loss of patent protection in key products.
BMS (down by 10 percent) reported Q3 revenue of US$ 11 billion, a 2 percent decrease from the same quarter last year, mainly due to 41 percent decline in sales of its cancer drug Revlimid.
AbbVie (down by 5 percent) reported Q3 net revenues of US$ 13.92 billion, marking a 6 percent decrease over Q3 2022. This drop is attributed in part to the launch of Humira biosimilars, which have caused a 36.2 percent reduction in the immunology drug’s net revenues. Additionally, AbbVie’s blood cancer drug Imbruvica’s net revenues have dropped by 20 percent.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Low Covid sales hit Pfizer, BioNTech, Roche stocks; Pfizer’s Q3 sales dip by 42%
Pfizer (down by 9 percent) saw a 42 percent decline in its Q3 revenues — at US$ 13.23 billion — primarily due to lower sales of its Covid products. While sales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty fell by 70 percent (at US$ 1.3 billion), its Covid drug Paxlovid saw a 97 percent drop in sales over Q3 2022.
Pfizer has significantly reduced its full-year revenue forecast and also plans to save US$ 3.5 billion through job cuts and cost reductions. Its partner for Comirnaty, BioNTech, is yet to announce its Q3 results, but its stock fell by 13 percent during October.
Roche’s Q3 sales also slipped by 3 percent to CHF 14.3 billion (US$ 15.9 billion) owing to a slump in Covid sales. The Swiss drugmaker has predicted a decline in 2023 sales of Covid products at about CHF 4.5 billion (US$ 4.99 billion). Its previous estimate was CHF 5 billion (US$ 5.5 billion). Roche’s stock was down by 6 percent last month.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Merck, Novo raise 2023 guidance; Ozempic, Wegovy boost Novo sales
Among the gainers were mega-cap drugmakers Merck (stock up by 1 percent in October) and Novo Nordisk (up by 4 percent). Merck has reported higher-than-expected third-quarter results on strong demand for its Covid-19 treatment, Lagevrio (molnupiravir), cancer med Keytruda and HPV vaccine Gardasil. As a result, Merck has revised its 2023 sales upwards, in the range of US$ 59.7 billion to US$ 60.2 billion (from US$ 58.6 billion to US$ 59.6 billion).
Novo Nordisk’s popular diabetes med Ozempic and weight loss med Wegovy are boosting the company’s sales. Ergo, the company expects full-year sales to grow between 32 and 38 percent at constant exchange rates. Moreover, Novo has acquired ocedurenone, a drug in late-stage trial, from KBP Biosciences for up to US$ 1.3 billion. Ocedurenone is an oral treatment for uncontrolled hypertension with potential applications in cardiovascular and kidney disease.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Astra, Ventyx stocks hit by disappointing trial data; Lilly, Vertex post gains
AstraZeneca’s stock was hit by disappointing results from a late-stage trial of its experimental lung cancer drug — datopotamab deruxtecan. Astra’s stock was down by 6 percent in October and its partner in developing the drug, Daiichi Sankyo’s stock fell by 4 percent.
Similarly, Ventyx Biosciences (down by 56 percent) announced positive results from a phase 2 trial in patients with moderate-to-severely active ulcerative colitis, but investors were unimpressed due to doubts about whether the candidate has an edge over rival Pfizer’s etrasimod and BMS’ Zeposia.
Akero Therapeutics’ (down by 76 percent) nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) candidate, efruxifermin, failed mid-stage trial as it didn’t show any significant benefit for patients with cirrhosis caused by NASH, the most advanced and life-threatening stage of the fatty liver disease. Similarly, Sarepta Therapeutics’ treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (a muscle-wasting disease) — Elevidys — failed a phase 3 study, taking its stock down by 44 percent in October.
In a positive clinical trial news, Lilly’s Crohn’s disease experimental drug mirikizumab met the main goals of a phase 3 study. Similarly, Vertex (up by 4 percent) posted encouraging positive clinical trial results of VX-880 to treat type 1 diabetes.
Meanwhile, FDA issued a complete response letter (CRL) to Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ siRNA therapy Onpattro (patisiran) for the treatment of cardiomyopathy of transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis. It stated that Alnylam (down by 15 percent) has not provided enough evidence of the therapy’s benefit in the proposed indication.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Our view
The biopharma industry is eagerly awaiting the approval of several experimental drugs in Q4 2023, including Italfarmaco’s givinostat for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), and Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine VLA1553.
We are already seeing the market inch upwards. Let’s hope the exciting pipeline and new drug approvals are able to pull pharma indices out of the doldrums.
Access the Pipeline Prospector Dashboard for October 2023 Newsmakers (Free Excel)
Pharma & Biotech Newsmakers in October 2023
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Image Credit : Pharma & Biotech Newsmakers in October 2023 by PharmaCompass license under CC BY 2.0
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