Supply Chain Risk 16Nov2015 – By: Charlotte Hicks

Summary: These are the risk I'm monitoring: Paris, Potash Risk, El Nino (forecast, tornado and rice shortage) and Folate (FYI).

Paris: Our hearts and condolences go out to our friends in France as they try to piece their lives back together after the attacks on Friday. Much of the chaos is near Paris, however, we should expect delays in the French supply chain in general. Looking at my personal supply chain map, I would anticipate delays and possible tightness on the materials below, however, you should check your personal map. Please touch base with your supply chain and provide support for you French partners. I’m sure your patience will be appreciated.
Bismuth Subgallate
Bismuth Subsalicylate
Magnesium Carbonate
Mannitol
Methyl Salicylate
Sorbital

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/13/world/paris-shooting/

Potash: Yahoo Finance reports that potash prices are low, specifically falling from about $500/metric ton in 1Q12 to about $250/metric ton today. While this might sound like a good thing for consumers, there is a down side that we need to be aware of:

Production Reduction: When the price of potash falls, companies logically reduce production, and in this case, both Potash Corp and Mosaic have announced reductions. For the short term, we should see stable prices on downstream materials; however, if there is a sudden increase in demand, we could see tightness on downstream materials used by our industry. Unexpected increases in potash demand can result from flooding of agricultural areas, which is a higher than normal risk this year due to El Nino.

Electronics Market Specifically: When prices are low, production is usually reduced and mines closed. In the electronics world, there are specific mines in Saskatchewan that have low sodium potash. If production is reduced in those veins, low sodium potassium hydroxide could be tight.

Bottom Line: Watch for back order or increased lead times on these products
Potassium Acetate
Potassium Carbonate
Potassium Chloride/Chlorate
Potassium Hydroxide
Potassium Nitrate
Potassium Permanganate
Potassium Phosphate
Potassium Sulfate
Various Fertilizers

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/potashcorp-dealing-low-potash-price-131013944.html

El Nino: Update on the expected length of the event in North America, a tornado in California, and anticipated rice
supply issues in Indonesia

North America: This current El Nino is expected to be the strongest in 18 years. For North America, the effects are expected to peak in the next few winter months then dissipate in spring. I live in North Carolina, and am impacted by the rain… I’m definitely looking forward to the Spring!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/news/strong-el-nino-noaa-update-november2015

California Tornado: On Sunday, a tornado did damage to the town of Denair, located in the central valley about 100 miles east of The Bay Area. From my personal supply chain map, I do not anticipate an impact, however, you should check with your suppliers in the area.

http://theweek.com/speedreads/589107/absolutely-rare-tornado-tears-through-california-town
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-suspected-tornado-causes-damage-as-new-storm-hits-california-20151115-story.html

Indonesia: Meanwhile, Indonesia is bracing for tight rice availability…

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesia-may-face-rice-shortage-due-to-el-nino

Folic Acid FYI: Something weird came across my google alerts… a Craig’s Listing (and others) for folic acid. This gives me pause, as it COULD BE a sign that supplies are getting tight for consumers. I quickly checked Ebay, but not seeing any price gouging like I’ve seen in the past. For example, during the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami radiation scare, I monitored ebay listings for potassium iodine and watched the price climb about 5x in a matter of days. Again, this is just an FYI, and I will report back if I see a trend.

http://philadelphia.craigslist.org/zip/5317264613.html

http://www.walmart.ca/en/ip/equate-folic-acid-1-mg-usp/6000189074137

Author: Charlotte Hicks

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Image Credit : Flag of France, Undated by Nathan Hughes Hamilton is licensed under CC BY 2.0

“ The article is based on the information available in public and which the author believes to be true. The author is not disseminating any information, which the author believes or knows, is confidential or in conflict with the privacy of any person. The views expressed or information supplied through this article is mere opinion and observation of the author. The author does not intend to defame, insult or, cause loss or damage to anyone, in any manner, through this article.”

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