Now that it has been
established that the novel coronavirus is going to globally impact the drug
supply chain, it becomes imperative to analyze the extent of the impact.
Since the outbreak of
the novel coronavirus — COVID-19 — in December, PharmaCompass has been constantly reaching out to
manufacturers around the world to assess the current state of the drug supply
chain. This week, we share our preliminary analysis based on the feedback we
have received from drug manufacturers around the world.
Drug shortages are
for real
Last week, the US
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the first human drug shortage
as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. In addition, the FDA announced it was
tracking 20 drugs that could face shortages. Some generic drugmakers are predicting shortages
as early as in June or July, due to the novel coronavirus.
The FDA did not disclose the name of the drug in shortage or the 20 drugs it is tracking, as this is considered ‘confidential commercial information’.
In India, a committee constituted by the country’s Department of Pharmaceuticals started monitoring the availability of 58 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to take preventive measures
against illegal hoarding and black-marketing in the country.
According to a report published in The Economic Times, after
reviewing the list of drugs, 34 were found to have no alternatives which
include critical and essential drugs like potassium clavulanate, ceftriaxone sodium sterile, piperacillin tazobactam, meropenem, vancomycin, gentamycin and ciprofloxacin.
This was immediately
followed by the Indian government restricting the exports of 13
APIs along with some of their finished formulations. The list includes paracetamol, tinidazole, metronidazole, acyclovir, vitamin B1, vitamin B6, vitamin B12, progesterone, chloramphenicol and neomycin. For most
of the products on this list, India is a net importer, as there is little
domestic manufacturing of these APIs.
COVID-19 is also
likely to impact bottomlines. Leading generic drugmaker Mylan said it expects the coronavirus outbreak to impact its financial results
while some of the largest drugmakers — including AstraZeneca, Merck and Pfizer — have said that the coronavirus outbreak could affect their supplies or sales.
Paracetamol
affected; prices double in less regulated markets
The decline in industrial activity in China is certainly taking its toll, as drugs which are on the World Health Organization’s Model list of Essential Medicines are beginning to face significant price increases in the wake of disruption of key starting raw materials for bulk drugs.
The export
restriction out of India on commonly used analgesic, Paracetamol — sold under the brand names such as Tylenol (in the US), Panadol (in the UK), Dafalgan (France) and Crocin
(India) — is not surprising as the API has witnessed almost doubling of prices in less regulated markets because exports of its key building block para-amino phenol (PAP) have dramatically reduced from China.
While there are only
a few manufacturers who produce paracetamol without being dependent on Chinese
PAP, a few major manufacturers in India depend almost completely on Chinese PAP
for their paracetamol production and usually only keep three to four months of
inventory.
By the end of
February, their inventory stockpiles had halved and in the event of a continued
supply disruption, their entire inventory pipeline is likely to dry out. In
addition, Chinese paracetamol manufacturers, who export a significant amount of
their bulk ingredient production globally, including to India, are also
currently unable to export. This is beginning to create the potential of panic
among sourcing executives across the world.
Several
antibiotics also in danger of acute shortages
While paracetamol was listed on the API watch list circulated by India’s Department of Pharmaceuticals, our survey has revealed that other products on the list like ciprofloxacin, amoxicillin and azithromycin are also facing severe raw material
shortages. As a result, the prices of these bulk drugs have also increased
sharply.
In a statement to The Economic Times, leading Indian generic manufacturer Mankind Pharma’s chairman and managing director said
amoxicillin is the most commonly used API to manufacture antibiotics and the
company has invested Rs 1 billion (US$ 14 million) in placing irregular orders
with vendors to try and address the potential shortage that is expected. He
went on to say that if the situation continues until April, there will be an
acute shortage.
In a statement to the US House of Representatives last October, Janet Woodcock, the FDA’s Director of Center of Drug Evaluation and Research, said the FDA has determined that there are three WHO Essential Medicines whose API manufacturers are based only in China. The three medicines are: capreomycin, streptomycin (both indicated to treat Mycobacterium
tuberculosis) and sulfadiazine (used to treat chancroid and trachoma).
Streptomycin is also on the watch list published by India’s Department of Pharmaceuticals along with commonly used anti-hypertensives like losartan, valsartan, telmisartan and olmesartan and diabetes treatment metformin.
Intermediates
becoming a problem for generic drugmakers
PharmaCompass’ discussions have also revealed that in many cases while API manufacturing factories in China have returned to work, there are disruptions in the availability of raw materials and/or logistics at sea ports and airports which have led to unavailability of supplies.
While the FDA has a
list of the number of API facilities in China which are in a position to supply
to the United States, Woodcock said in her statement that the FDA “cannot determine with any precision the volume of API that China is actually producing, or the volume of APIs manufactured in China that is entering the US market.”
This visibility
reduces drastically when one has to assess the dependence of each API
manufacturer around the world on China for intermediates. Our discussions have
revealed that it is these intermediates which are becoming a problem for most
API manufacturers, even those based in India.
It was worth
highlighting that a manufacturing process change at an intermediate stage of
commonly used blood pressure medicine valsartan resulted in the recall of
millions of pills as it was found to contain a cancer causing impurity above
acceptable levels. Similarly, in 2008, the adulteration of heparin in China,
which killed 81 people and left 785 severely injured, was an outcome of the
subcontracting of precursor chemicals of Heparin.
Our view
The over-dependence
on China for key starting materials has been the subject of discussion ever
since we launched PharmaCompass. Rosemary Gibson explored this subject
in detail in her book China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America’s Dependence on
China for Medicine.
The restrictions imposed on industrial activity and transportation in China in the first two months of this year has resulted in NASA’s satellite images showing a decline in pollution levels over China.
While China works
towards getting its industrial and transportation engine up and running to 2019
levels, the outbreak has spread to other countries which will further increase
the demand for drugs to fight the virus.
This is a time when
the pharmaceutical industry needs to act responsibly and make decisions which
are in the best interests of patients globally.
Sharing information is one such step — it will allow for drug stockpiles and inventories that exist to be re-distributed to areas which need them most. For, in the event of an urgent need, drugs will become available to those who are most in need.
Impressions: 8192
In less than three weeks, Donald Trump will assume office as the
President of the United States. He has mentioned that he wants Medicare (a
national social insurance program) to directly negotiate the price it pays for prescription drugs.
Medicare provides health insurance to Americans aged 65 or more, who
have worked and paid into the system through the payroll tax. It also provides
health insurance to younger people with some disabilities or end-stage renal
disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
In 2015, Medicare provided health insurance to over 55 million Americans — including 46 million people aged 65 or more, and nine million younger people.
As we flag off the New Year, PharmaCompass
provides insights into drug prices and prescription patterns in the US in order
to help professionals make informed decisions. We believe that the cost of
medicines in the US, which have been a subject of much public outcry and
discussions in the recent years, will continue to be scrutinized during 2017.
Medicare data for 2014
Medicare Part D, also known as the Medicare prescription drug benefit — the program which subsidizes the costs of prescription drugs and prescription drug insurance premiums for Medicare beneficiaries — published a data set (for calendar year 2014) which contains information from over one million healthcare providers
who collectively prescribed approximately US $121 billion worth of prescription
drugs paid for under this program.
For each prescriber and drug, the dataset
includes the total number of prescriptions that were dispensed (including
original prescriptions and any refills), and the total drug cost.
The total drug cost includes the ingredient cost of the medication, dispensing fees, sales tax, and any applicable administration fees. It’s based on the amounts paid by the Part D plan, the Medicare beneficiary, other government subsidies, and any other third-party payers (such as employers and liability insurers).
The total drug cost does not reflect any manufacturer rebates paid to Part D plan sponsors through direct and indirect remuneration or point-of sale rebates. In order to protect the beneficiary’s privacy, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) did not
include information in cases where 10 or fewer prescriptions were dispensed.
Top
Ten Drugs by Cost, 2014 [Most expensive for Medicare]
Drug Name
Total Claim Count
Beneficiary Count
Prescriber Count
Total Drug Cost
Sofosbuvir
109,543
33,028
7,323
$3,106,589,192
Esomeprazole Magnesium
7,537,736
1,405,570
286,927
$2,660,052,054
Rosuvastatin Calcium
9,072,799
1,752,423
266,499
$2,543,475,142
Aripiprazole
2,963,457
405,048
130,933
$2,526,731,476
Fluticasone/Salmeterol
6,093,354
1,420,515
281,775
$2,276,060,161
Tiotropium Bromide
5,852,258
1,211,919
253,277
$2,158,219,163
Lantus
Solostar
(Insulin Glargine)
4,441,782
972,882
224,710
$2,016,728,436
Sitagliptin Phosphate
4,495,964
789,828
190,741
$1,775,094,282
Lantus
(Insulin Glargine)
4,284,173
787,077
223,502
$1,725,391,907
Lenalidomide
178,373
27,142
9,337
$1,671,610,362
View the Medicare Part D National Prescriber Summary Report, Calendar Year 2014 (Excel version available) for FREE!
Top
Ten Drugs by Average Cost per Claim, 2014 [Most expensive drugs]
Drug Name
Total Claim Count
Beneficiary Count
Prescriber Count
Total Drug Cost
Average Cost Per Claim
Adagen
13
$1,224,835
$94,218
Elaprase
100
$6,560,225
$65,602
Cinryze
1,820
194
196
$96,155,785
$52,833
Carbaglu
60
$2,901,115
$48,352
Naglazyme
129
$6,189,045
$47,977
Berinert
538
73
68
$25,685,311
$47,742
Firazyr
1,568
269
232
$70,948,143
$45,248
H.P. Acthar
9,611
2,932
1,621
$391,189,653
$40,702
Procysbi
314
41
47
$12,542,911
$39,946
Folotyn
15
$598,210
$39,881
Top
Ten Drugs by Claims, 2014 [Most Commonly Used by Patients]
Generic Name
Total Claim Count
Beneficiary Count
Prescriber Count
Total Drug Cost
Lisinopril
38,278,860
7,454,940
464,747
$281,614,340
Levothyroxine Sodium
37,711,869
6,245,507
416,518
$631,855,415
Amlodipine Besylate
36,344,166
6,750,062
451,350
$303,779,661
Simvastatin
34,092,548
6,768,159
387,651
$346,677,118
Hydrocodone-Acetaminophen
33,446,696
8,005,790
677,865
$676,296,988
Omeprazole
33,032,770
6,707,964
475,122
$529,050,385
Atorvastatin Calcium
32,603,055
6,740,061
419,327
$747,635,818
Furosemide
27,133,430
5,176,582
456,047
$135,710,772
Metformin HCl
23,475,787
4,509,978
364,273
$203,948,989
Gabapentin
22,143,641
4,298,609
486,754
$492,557,255
View the Medicare Part D National Prescriber Summary Report, Calendar Year 2014 (Excel version available) for FREE!
Top
Ten Drugs by Prescribers, 2014 [Most Popular with Doctors]
Generic Name
Total Claim Count
Beneficiary Count
Prescriber Count
Total Drug Cost
Hydrocodone/Acetaminophen
33,446,696
8,005,790
677,865
$676,296,988
Ciprofloxacin HCl
7,253,018
4,926,835
568,201
$46,728,353
Amoxicillin
6,298,980
4,384,899
557,614
$31,193,739
Cephalexin
5,040,219
3,529,303
557,048
$36,987,401
Azithromycin
7,339,954
5,274,010
544,625
$70,699,119
Prednisone
11,032,986
4,505,821
536,108
$86,537,932
Tramadol HCl
14,250,227
4,272,724
515,816
$125,343,514
Sulfamethoxazole /Trimethoprim
4,833,758
3,090,944
500,790
$29,231,511
Gabapentin
22,143,641
4,298,609
486,754
$492,557,255
Amoxicillin/Potassium Clav
3,551,452
2,710,244
478,361
$61,713,432
The findings from CMS
data
The CY 2014 data represented a 17 percent
increase compared to the 2013 data set and a substantial part of the total estimated prescription drug spending (as estimated by the Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, or ASPE) in the United States — at about US $ 457 billion in 2015, which was 16.7 percent of the overall personal healthcare services.
Of that US $ 457 billion, US $ 328 billion (71.9 percent) was for retail
drugs and US $ 128 billion (28.1 percent) was for non-retail drugs.
The drug pricing process in the US is complex and
reflects the influence of numerous factors, including manufacturer list prices,
confidential negotiated discounts and rebates, insurance plan benefit designs,
and patient choices.
An IMS study found that across 12 therapy classes widely used in Medicare Part D,
medicine costs to plans and patients in Medicare Part D are 35 percent below
list prices.
View the Medicare Part D National Prescriber Summary Report, Calendar Year 2014 (Excel version available) for FREE!
While the CMS does not
currently have an established formulary, Part D drug coverage excludes drugs
not approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, those prescribed for off-label
use, drugs not available by prescription for
purchase in the US, and drugs for which payments would be available under Parts
A or B of Medicare.
Part D coverage
excludes drugs or classes of drugs excluded from Medicaid coverage,
such as:
Drugs used for anorexia, weight loss, or weight gain
Drugs used to promote fertility
Drugs used for erectile dysfunction
Drugs used for cosmetic purposes (hair growth, etc.)
Drugs used for the symptomatic relief of cough and colds
Prescription vitamins and mineral products, except prenatal vitamins and fluoride preparations
Drugs where the manufacturer requires (as a condition of sale) any associated tests or monitoring services to be purchased exclusively from that manufacturer or its designee
Our view
The Medicare program is designed such that the
federal government is not permitted to negotiate prices of drugs with the drug
companies, as federal agencies do under other programs.
For instance, the Department of Veterans Affairs — which is allowed to negotiate drug prices and establish a formulary — has been estimated to pay (on an average) between 40 to 58 percent less for drugs, as opposed to Medicare Part D.
If Trump administration kick starts direct
negotiations on Medicare drug prices with drug companies, 2017 will surely turn
out to be a year for the pharmaceutical industry to remember.
View the Medicare Part D National Prescriber Summary Report, Calendar Year 2014 (Excel version available) for FREE!
Impressions: 7929
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd., which acquired Cephalon in 2012, will make a total payment of $1.2 billion as part of a ‘pay-for-delay’ settlement reached with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) last week.
What exactly did Cephalon, for which Teva paid $6.8 billion, do so wrong? Isn’t ‘pay-for-delay’ common practice in the pharmaceutical industry?
First of all what is a
pay-for-delay?
‘Pay for delay’ or reverse payment patent settlements, are agreements where the brand name drug manufacturer compensates generics, not to market the generic product for a specific period of time.
These settlements allow the brand manufacturers to extend their
patent monopolies and according to an FTC study, these deals
cost consumers and taxpayers $3.5 billion in higher drug costs every year.
What exactly happens and
why is it a big deal now?
Cephalon allegedly paid four generic drug companies (Teva, Ranbaxy Pharmaceuticals, Mylan Pharmaceuticals, and Barr Laboratories), over $300 million in total. In return the generics agreed to drop their patent challenges and forgo marketing of their generic versions of Cephalon’s blockbuster sleep-disorder drug Provigil, for six years, until April 2012.
An extended monopoly for Provigil, in the absence of generic competition, was “$4 billion in sales that no one expected”, the CEO of Cephalon reportedly said when the deal was struck.
While in Europe, regulators have been going after pay-for-delay cases for years, it was only as recently as 2013, in FTC v. Actavis, that the U.S. Supreme Court made clear that reverse payment patent settlements are subject to the same antitrust rules that govern general U.S. business conduct.
The payment made by Teva will compensate purchasers, including drug wholesalers, pharmacies, and insurers, who overpaid because of Cephalon’s illegal conduct, is the first positive outcome for the FTC after the Supreme Court ruling.
How common are ‘pay-for-delay’ settlements?
Based on data provided by the FTC, for the past few years, more
than 100 settlements are reached annually between brand and generic
pharmaceutical companies.
Over 30% of these settlements have the potential of being ‘pay-for-delay’ agreements.
Table// Potential
pay-for-delay settlements reached between brand and generic companies:
Financial Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Final Settlements:
between brand and generic companies
14
11
28
33
66
68
113
156
140
145
Involving First Generic Filing
8
5
11
16
29
32
49
54
43
41
Potential Pay-for-Delay:
Involving First Generic Filing
2
9
11
13
15
26
18
23
13
Settlements
3
14
14
16
19
31
28
40
29
How severe are the penalties for ‘pay-for-delay’ settlements in Europe?
The European Commission has
fined Johnson
& Johnson (J&J) just under 10.8 million
euros and Novartis 5.49 million euros, after discovering a ‘pay-for-delay’ deal on the painkiller Duragesic (fentanyl).
The amount pales in comparison to
the whopping €428m fine on Servier and several other companies (Niche/ Unichem; Matrix, which is now part of Mylan; Teva; Krka and Lupin) for conspiring to delay generics of the widely-used blood pressure drug Coversyl/ Aceon (perindopril).
In yet another settlement, agreements which operated in 2002 and
2003 between the Danish originator Lundbeck, and other
generic companies, resulted in Euro
146 million in fines.
What should we expect in the future?
Based on an FTC
presentation made in September 2014, they highlighted 19 Cases to Watch, which has them targeting almost every
major brand and generic pharmaceutical company. However, with the complexities
involved, this list is continuously evolving:
The
cases (by name of the brand product) Actos,
Adderall,
Aggrenox,
AndroGel,
Cipro,
Effexor,
K-Dur, Lamictal, Lidoderm,
Lipitor,
Loestrin,
Nexium,
Niaspan,
Opana,
Provigil,
Skelaxin,
Solodyn,
Wellbutrin.The
brand companies involvedAbbvie,
Abbott,
AstraZeneca,
Bayer,
Besins,
Biovail,
Boehringer,
Cephalon,
Endo,
GlaxoSmithKline,
King,
Medicis,
Pfizer,
Shire,
Schering,
Takeda,
Warner
Chilcott, Wyeth.The
generic companies Actavis
, Barr,
Duramed,
Dr. Reddy’s, HMR, Impax,
Lupin,
Mutual,
Mylan, Par, Perrigo,
Ranbaxy,
Rugby, Sandoz,
Teva,
Upsher
Smith.
Our view:
Pharmaceutical companies,
lawyers and the FTC will be busy for the coming few years, since there are a
series of suits, which will be challenging settlements reached between brand
and generic pharmaceutical companies.
While patents
provide temporary monopolies to promote innovation, brand drug manufacturers
will need to resort to more innovative ways of sustaining their profits.
Click here and learn about the different strategies adopted in the United States to block generics?
Impressions: 3401